Are the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl Contenders?

    Before the season, nobody expected the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL. A lot of people, myself included, thought that the Baltimore Ravens would be the clear front-runners for the AFC North division, and that they would be a top 2 seed in the AFC, as they were said to be the biggest threat to the Kansas City Chiefs' potential run for a repeat. But the Ravens couldn't match their electric play that they had last year and fell to 2nd in the AFC North. As for the Steelers, their balanced offensive attack, led by the return of Ben Roethlisberger, aided by the top-ranked defense in the NFL, got them to the top of the AFC. But are they truly Super Bowl contenders?

    They do have the talent to make it there. Big Ben has been off to the best statistical start of his career, nearly totaling 2,000 passing yards in 8 games and having a touchdown-interception ratio of 18:4. Even if there isn't much elite talent around him, he is the glue that holds everything together and will take over games when needed to do so. He's the toughest competitor out there on the gridiron, having played through injuries time after time.

    James Conner has silently had a bounce-back season after having an injury-plagued 2019 season, where he was limited to 10 games. Benny Snell has been a solid third down back, and the decision to gamble on Anthony McFarland Jr. at the draft is already starting to pay off as he is making big plays when the situation needs it.

    The receiving core may not feature a true no. 1 wide receiver, but it is solid. JuJu Smith-Schuster creates mismatches at the slot, and is very effective on the yards after catch. Diontae Johnson has Antonio Brown-type upside should he continue to improve in his career, and gets shifty with the ball when racking up the yards after catch. Chase Claypool is already making an impact in his rookie season, and is also getting involved in the run game, as his seven rushes have went for two touchdowns and four first downs, to go on with his five receiving touchdowns. He, Johnson, and James Washington have all been effective deep threats. Eric Ebron, even if he hasn't put up the stats as he did in 2016 and 2018, is still a solid tight end.

    The offensive line is still top 10 in the league, led by three Pro Bowlers in David DeCastro, Maurkice Pouncey, and Alejandro Villanueva. Matt Feiler has done well in his transition over to left guard following the retirement of Ramon Foster, and Chukwuma Okorafor has stepped up in the absence of Zach Banner, who was lost for the season because of an injury in Week 1. Another name of note is Kevin Dotson, a 4th-round rookie out of Louisiana. Dotson has not allowed a sack so far in his career in 72 pass-blocking snaps through Week 7.

    The Steelers have the highest-ranked defense in the NFL, ranking top three in many major categories: net pass yards allowed; total sacks, sacks per game, and sacks per pass attempt percentage; QB hurries, both total and per game; QB pressures, both total and per game; tackles for loss; total yards allowed, cumulatively and per game; interceptions, both total and per game; QB hits; rushing yards allowed per game and per carry; fewest completions allowed; rushing touchdowns allowed; scoring defense; total yards allowed per play; and yards lost by sack.

    T. J. Watt, Cam Heyward, and Minkah Fitzpatrick lead the charge in the defense, being the key X-factors on having this defense being the top-ranked defense in the league. Watt, Bud Dupree, and Stephon Tuitt have combined for 19 sacks, with Watt racking up 13.5 tackles for loss and 6 passes defensed, with 3 of the passes defensed coming against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 9. Heyward's stats may not show it, but he is still the leader of the defensive line. Tuitt has been on a tear, racking up All-Pro numbers this season, and Dupree continues to show improvement as an edge rusher. And Fitzpatrick has been continuing to be an elite defender, making quarterbacks not even considering throwing to the deep areas of the field, where he would be covering most of the time.

    So, are the Steelers Super Bowl contenders? With the pieces that fit together, the answer would be yes. However, history is not on their side. Ever since the NFL moved to a 16-game schedule in 1978, only six of the 22 teams that started 8-0 have went on to win the Super Bowl, and of the nine teams that started 8-0 since 2010, only three made a Super Bowl appearance compared to nine of 13 before 2010.

    Even if the Steelers rank 5th in points per game, at 29.4, they are 25th in yards per play, 24th in net yards per attempt, and 24th in yards per carry. In addition, according to Sharp Football Stats, they are 26th in early-down pass success rate (47%), 27th in early-down rush success rate (45%), and 27th in early-down success rate overall (46%). The DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders sees the Steelers offense in a more positive light, ranking them at 15th overall - 16th in passing and 22nd in rushing.

    Add that to the fact that the Steelers have also won games in ugly fashion this season: Holding on to an 18-point lead against the Broncos, who lost Drew Lock early in the game to injury; holding on to a 17-point lead against the Eagles, who were missing their two best wide receivers, their second best tight end, and four of their starting offensive linemen from the past two seasons, which would become five during the game; holding on to a 20-point lead against the Titans, who weren't exactly an inferior opponent but also started with an undefeated 5-0 record; and holding on to a one-score lead in consecutive weeks in a final drive of the game when their opponent had a chance to win the game in the final seconds of regulation against the Ravens and Cowboys.

    It doesn't help that the offense is 23rd in explosive pass rate (7%) and 29th in explosive rush rate (9%), as noted by Sharp Football Stats, especially in the run game, since the offensive line has been able to elevate the running game, but ranks 31st in Pro Football Focus' run-blocking grade (54.5), 27th in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards (3.90), and 20th in percentage of run plays stuffed for no gain or a loss (19%). To put this into comparison, the offensive line has had higher grades in pass blocking, but most passing plays that offensive coordinator Randy Fitchner puts up have been worse than the running plays. And when you exclude the touchdowns, the Steelers have 29 completed passes that went for 2 or fewer yards, the 2nd-most in the NFL.

    Roethlisberger also leads the league in quickest time to throw, at 2.13 seconds, according to Pro Football Focus. On the deep ball, he has thrown six touchdowns, which is the 4th-most in the league, but also three interceptions, the 3rd-most in the league, while ranking 26th with a 34.0% adjusted completion rate, which accounts for drops. Washington, the team's best deep threat, has also dropped to 5th in the wide receiver depth chart, having his spot taken over by Ray-Ray McCloud, who has spent the majority of his career on special teams who had six catches in two seasons heading into the 2020 season.

    Despite all the negatives, the team has Super Bowl upside. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, who recently became the 2nd coach in NFL history to have 14 consecutive non-losing seasons to start his head coaching career, joining Marty Schottenheimer, the Steelers have been playing like the most dangerous team in the NFL this season. Not only with the young receivers making an impact and Roethlisberger turning back the clock to 2014, but having the defense as the team's strength. This is certainly a team to watch going forward. And even if the Chiefs are still the favorites to win the Super Bowl, the Steelers should not be easily slept on.