Is This the Downfall of the Houston Rockets?

 

    Several reports emerged that there have been internal conflicts with the Rockets. After the second round series loss to the Lakers, it was revealed that the Rockets had a lot of locker room trouble. Most of their players were unhappy with the team, including former players of the Rockets. The Athletic wrote that the Rockets' team culture, according to sources, is problematic, and highlights "a situation that caters far too much to its stars."

    Former Rockets head coach and current Nets assistant coach Mike D'Antoni implemented a system that focuses a lot on superstar players. James Harden, the team's superstar player, got a lot of time of possession. Same thing for Russell Westbrook when he joined during the 2019 offseason. It left their teammates annoyed - both current players and former players. They believed that this strategy was the main reason why the Rockets lost Game 7 of the 2018 Western Conference Finals, where they missed 27 straight three-pointers.

    The team also did not like the decisions to trade away Chris Paul and Clint Capela. The commitment to a small ball lineup backfired in the playoffs, where they struggled to beat the Thunder in the first round, requiring a 7th and deciding game, where Harden blocked a last-second three-point attempt from Thunder rookie Luguentz Dort, and with the five-game elimination to the Lakers in the second round, especially with the team using Robert Covington to guard Anthony Davis, one of the best power forwards in the league.

    Fast forward to today. Now, Harden and Westbrook want out of the team. Harden has insisted that he be traded to the Nets, as he wants to play with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. It appears the relationship between Harden and the Rockets is far beyond repair now. And Westbrook has mentioned that he wants to be the primary ball handler on another team. His role with the Rockets has been significantly reduced as to when he was playing with the Thunder, and he was not happy with it. Harden also turned down a two-year, $103 million extension from the Rockets.

    Think that's it? Other players are not happy either. P. J. Tucker has one year left on his $8 million contract, and he is not happy that other players, of the same caliber and play style as him, are getting paid more than him. Eric Gordon, the winner of 6th Man of the Year in 2017, said that he had a reduced role with the team in 2020. He played a career-low in minutes, and also had career-lows in field goal percentage and three-point percentage. He wanted to play more with Harden and Westbrook on the floor, but D'Antoni's system didn't let him do that. Danuel House Jr. was playing more than Gordon, and House was unsatisfied with his role too! Even though he played over 30 minutes per game, he averaged 8.6 shots per game. He was frustrated to where he "verbally challenged D'Antoni, Harden, and Westbrook this season." Backup point guard Austin Rivers said that he was rejecting his $2 million player option. After averaging 28.6 minutes per game in the 2019 season, Rivers averaged 23.4 minutes per game in 2020, and he was unhappy with his role too. He was also upset when Harden yelled at him after the star shooting guard missed a free throw, saying that Rivers was "distracting him."

    The Rockets hinted at a post-Harden rebuild by trading Covington to the Trail Blazers for Trevor Ariza and two first round picks, including the 16th overall pick in the 2020 Draft, which was used to select forward Isaiah Stewart, and then sending Ariza and Stewart to the Pistons for a future first round pick. But Kelly Iko and David Aldridge of The Athletic said that the interest of such moves for a post-Harden rebuild go beyond basketball. Owner Tilman Fertitta reportedly wants to reduce payroll and not get the Rockets involved in luxury tax.

    From that stance, it makes a lot of sense knowing Fertitta's history as the owner of the Rockets. They have not paid a luxury tax under Fertitta, but have been going in the opposite direction to avoid it, despite having a roster that can compete for a playoff spot. After their 2018 playoff run, they let Ariza walk for nothing in the offseason. They traded away a 1st round pick to get rid of the final year of  guard Brandon Knight's contract while cutting salary from other players, including forward James Ennis.

    Fertitta's own finances also contributes to this too. When he purchased the Rockets from previous owner Leslie Alexander, he had less than $300 million in cash, according to Forbes. However, he used an atypical deal structure to purchase the Rockets: By assuming debt and taking out a loan from Alexander, and selling over $1.4 billion in bonds to finance the purchase. It left him deeply leveraged, and the COVID-19 pandemic made matters worse. He made most of his money from the restaurant and casino businesses. And neither industry has done well during the pandemic. He reportedly took out a $300 million loan at a steep 13 percent to keep his businesses afloat back in April, per the Houston Chronicle.

    The very critical situations with the team are with Harden and Westbrook. Both are owed over $132 million in the next three seasons. Gordon's three-year extension hasn't even started yet, but he would be earning $18.9 million per year with his extension. Currently, the Rockets are not over the tax line, but if they fill out their roster, they will be. If they want to get under the tax line, trading a combination of those three players would do the trick.

    Consider the fact that both Harden and Westbrook have both requested trades. I went to TradeNBA.com, which is a trade simulator that allows people to make trade scenarios involving certain player in the NBA. Here is what I got for the trade scenarios involving Harden and Westbrook:

Russell Westbrook to the Hornets

    This move can make a lot of sense, and the Hornets are arguably the best fit for Westbrook to land in a potential trade scenario. He is on good terms with Hornets owner Michael Jordan and has been signed to a deal with Air Jordan since 2013. The trade also doesn't break up the Hornets' young core of Devonte' Graham, Miles Bridges and P. J. Washington. Westbrook gets to be a primary ball handler again, which is what he wants.

    The Rockets also equally benefit from the trade as well: Terry Rozier is 26 years old and can create his own shot. In the past three seasons, Rozier has missed only seven games. During the 2020 season, Rozier made 40.7% of his three-point shots, and has made 46% of his catch-and-shoot shots. He is also a tough defender. In the cap department, the Rockets free up cap space, as well as receive draft picks to benefit the future of their franchise.

James Harden to the Nets

    You can call me crazy all you want, but this is a trade deal that can work out. Both the Rockets and Nets equally benefit from this trade. Harden gets to play with Durant and Irving, and the Nets become NBA Finals contenders. The Rockets also get young talent in Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Rodions Kurucs, as they are 26, 27, and 22 years old, respectively. While DeAndre Jordan may not be anywhere near the player he used to be when he was with the Clippers, he still provides veteran experience to his hometown team, and can be a solid option coming off the bench, as the Rockets previously signed Pistons center Christian Wood to a three-year, $41 million deal. While Jordan is 32, Wood is 25 and is a younger and more valuable option to put in the starting five.

    Wood has made strides over the last few years, and his ability to score on the inside and the outside should be noted. He also fits well with the Rockets, so starting him at center can make sense. But the Rockets need big men up front. On one side, there is Wood, who can be a floor-spacing, shot-blocking starter if he stays on track with his development. On the other side, there is Jordan, who is a rebounder and a post-defender. Offensively, Jordan relies on put-backs and alley-oops to make scoring plays.

    And the best part of these trade deals is that none of the players involved are on expiring contracts.

Rosters Based on Trade Scenarios

    Based on the trade scenarios, here's how I view each roster, both on the starting five and on the bench. Names that are only italicized are players added in the offseason not involved in the trade deals, names that are only underlined are rookies, and names that are bolded are players involved in the trade deals.

Houston Rockets

Starting Five

Christian Wood / P. J. Tucker / Eric Gordon / Caris LeVert / Terry Rozier

Bench

Spencer Dinwiddie, Rodions Kurucs, DeAndre Jordan, Ben McLemore, Chris Clemons, Kenyon Martin Jr., Michael Frazier, Thabo Sefolosha

Charlotte Hornets

Starting Five

Cody Zeller / P. J. Washington / Gordon Hayward / Dwayne Bacon / Russell Westbrook

Bench

Devonte' Graham, Miles Bridges, LaMelo Ball, Malik Monk, Vernon Carey Jr., Bismack Biyombo, Cody Martin, Willy Hernangomez

Brooklyn Nets

Starting Five

Jarrett Allen / Wilson Chandler / Kevin Durant / James Harden / Kyrie Irving

Bench

Joe Harris, Taurean Prince, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Landry Shamet, Danuel House Jr., Jeff Green, Chris Chiozza, Nicolas Claxton

So, Is It Time for the Rockets to Blow It Up?

    If you're a firm believer that they should play the long game instead of trying to sell out for a championship when the window is closing on them, the answer would be yes. Harden's value is not going to be as high as it is right now. And Westbrook, even though his contract is a little tougher to move, is coming off a 27-8-7 season where he shot 47% from the field. Also take into account the Rockets have a new front office, let by general manager Rafael Stone, and a new coaching staff, led by head coach Stephen Silas, and the fact that both Harden and Westbrook are unhappy with the team. These are all good reasons for the Rockets to blow it up.

    But there are also reasons for keeping Harden and Westbrook together, too. Harden IS the key piece to the Rockets ever since his arrival. He wins games for the organization. He shows improvement every year, making impacts both offensively and defensively. He's still 31. Dirk Nowitzki and Hakeem Olajuwon have the same reputation as Harden before winning their first titles: Phenomenal players, but couldn't get it done in the playoffs before their titles. And Harden could deserve a season with Silas. Silas is an offensive mastermind, and emphasizes on the development of guards. He previously worked with Stephen Curry, Kemba Walker, and Luka Doncic during the time he spent with the Warriors, Hornets, and Mavericks. Silas also has a potential championship pedigree, so people may want to see what he can do with this roster.

    But when you keep Harden, you should keep Westbrook too. At this rate, they are both worth a package deal. The Rockets need to ask themselves: What would happen when both of them are fully healthy and some tweaks were made to the roster?

    In the case the Rockets don't blow it up this offseason, they should run it back one more time, tweak the roster in the terms of the role players, and incorporate Silas's system to the team. Then observe. See how far the team goes. If it falls apart, then blow it up.