What's Happening with the Ravens' Offense?

 

    During the 2019 NFL season, the Ravens had the most electric offense in the league, putting up 20+ points in every regular season game leading up to the playoffs. But it has been all downhill for them ever since. Not only with the 28-12 loss to the Tians in the playoffs, but also with them sitting at 6-4 and in 3rd place in a hotly contested AFC North. The Ravens, who were once considered to be the biggest threat to a Chiefs repeat, now sit behind the Steelers and Browns in the AFC North race and out of a playoff spot.

    Last year, the Ravens averaged the most offensive points and second-most yards per game, at 30.4 and 407.6, respectively. But ever since the playoff loss, the Ravens rank 18th in points per drive this season, at 2.21, which is down from their 2.95 points per drive last season. Lamar Jackson has gone from completing 66 percent of his passes last season to completing 63 percent this season, and his quarterback rating fell from 82.3 to 62.3. He has also thrown as many picks he had through 10 games this season than he had all of last season: 6.

    Now sitting at 6-4, they still have a slim shot at the division title, but it would seem virtually impossible by how the Steelers have been playing this season. It doesn't help that they recently had a COVID-19 outbreak in the organization. They would be out of the division race if they lose to the Steelers, but still have a shot at a wild card spot, with their main competition being the Dolphins and the Raiders, both of which are 6-4.

    Their defense may still be one of the top defenses in the league, as they have the 6th-ranked defense, and it is one of the major keys they have to making a playoff push. But what is happening with the offense? Most of the regression on offense has mostly to do with defenses figuring out Jackson, and the coaching staff has struggled to adapt to the changes that defenses have made. They have only six games remaining on their schedule to counter.

    It's nothing new: During the Ravens' playoff loss to the Chargers in the 2018 wild card round, the Chargers used seven defensive backs on almost every snap of the game. While Jackson was tearing up the league as a rookie, the Chargers took notice and countered with lighter and faster defenders. It worked. After that game, the Ravens added blockers on the offensive line and at tight end, and signed Mark Ingram. They shaped the offense into one that made base defenses they like to attack. But this season, opposing defenses have adjusted to put Jackson and the rest of the offense out of their comfort zone. Mike Renner of Pro Football Focus analyzed that defenses have played more nickel and dime packages against the Ravens and have used more man coverage. While the Ravens have seen dime packages on opposing defenses 76 times all of last season, they have seen dime packages 102 times in 10 games so far this season.

    Dime packages - defensive packages in which defenses send out six defensive backs on the field - have helped in taking away the Ravens' speed to the edges, and it means that Jackson is being forced into making tight-window passes when a defender is spying on him. With Jackson averaging five yards per attempt and with an adjusted completion rate of 65 percent against man coverage, the worst and 5th-worst in the NFL, respectively, it is working. Jackson's rushing ability last season has been electrifying, and is one reason why he won MVP that season. But at the same time, his rushing ability is why defenses like to spy on him, and have held him to just four scrambles past the line of scrimmage on 79 dropbacks against man coverage this season.

    The ground game hasn't been that effective on attacking the defenses like in seasons past. But one main reason is on the offensive line. Last year, the Ravens had the 2nd-best offensive line in the NFL. This year, they rank 23rd. Eight-time Pro Bowl right guard Marshal Yanda announced his retirement in the offseason. And then, in Week 8, both All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley and rookie right guard Tyre Phillips suffered ankle injuries, with Stanley's injury being season-ending. Center Matt Skura was benched in Week 11 in favor of Patrick Mekari. If you think that's it, you would be mistaken. Their best blocking tight end, Nick Boyle, had a season-ending knee injury in Week 10.

    The Ravens still run the ball well, as they have the best rushing attack in the league, with a trio of backs featuring Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, and rookie J. K. Dobbins. But it isn't mattering as much because defenses have been focusing on preventing big plays on the passing attack. And because the Ravens have the 2nd-worst passing offense in the league, that meshed with the best rushing attack leads them to having the 24th-ranked offense.

    Injuries, lack of execution and discipline, and decision-making in the front office may have contributed to this as well. The blocking, in particular, has taken a step back. With how the run blocking has been, it led to more negative runs, fewer explosive runs, and fewer yards before contact per attempt. And with how the pass blocking has been, it led to Jackson taking more sacks than he did last season, and also being pressure more often. Last season, Jackson was pressured on 31.2 percent of his dropbacks, in comparison to this season's 37.7 percent, per Pro Football Focus. His scramble rate, in addition, dropped from 28.5 percent to 24.1 percent, and his yards per scramble average went from 10.5 yards to 6.4.

    With how defenses have been pressuring Jackson more, it also adds to how the Ravens have also had troubles when facing zone defense. They saw zone defense on over 63 percent of Jackson's pass attempts last season, but this season, that number is up to 68 percent, per Pro Football Focus. But when facing zone, Jackson has been pressured MORE this season (41.7 percent of dropbacks) than he was last season (26.1 percent). Against zone, he threw four touchdowns and three picks this season. His yards per scramble average was affected too, as it is 5.9 this season so far compared to last season's 7.7.

    The deep ball also has problems this season. Last season, Jackson was efficient on the deep ball, completing 19 of 55 throws of at least 20 yards, racking up 659 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. This season, it's down to 8 of 29 for 252 yards, one touchdown, and one pick. His favorite target on the deep ball is Marquise "Hollywood" Brown, but he has missed him a lot this season. Some misses are understandable, but others have been dreadful.

    Speaking of Hollywood Brown, he has voiced his displeasure with his lack of usage this season, and the team was talking about using him in a major role after he was hampered by injuries last season. After the Week 8 loss to the Steelers, he took to Twitter to voice his frustration with his lack of involvement with the offense, tweeting out, "What's the point of having souljas when you never use them (Never!!)" But there could be the feeling that we would be hearing a lot fewer complaints if Jackson's misses thrown towards him ended up in the wideout's hands, especially in the end zone. Brown has only two touchdowns this season compared to seven last season. But this season, it felt as if he should have had six touchdowns.

    The rest of the passing attack has been affected, too. They have consistently not been able to establish a quick game, which is a flaw of the design, but it sort of makes sense based on their style of play. They want to take deep shots down the field, over the rest of the defense. But if no one is there, they need to go short. They've done some of the latter, but it is usually either by a running back screen, by a checkdown, or by an RPO pass to Mark Andrews to the middle. It's not by design.

    Snapping the ball and lining the offense up correctly cannot be taken for granted, either. This season, the Ravens have been flagged six times for illegal formation, which is when a team does not have enough offensive players at the line of scrimmage. Since Week 4, the Ravens have committed 26 offensive penalties.

    The personnel is not left out of this, either. Most of the troubles have fallen on offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Head coach John Harbaugh came out to Roman's defense when asked of how the blame fell on the offensive coordinator, noting that Roman is a proven coach, along with the rest of the coaches. Harbaugh added on, "They're working hard, just like the players are, to get it right and put as many points up as they can. ... The outside, the criticism, whatever, it's just part of it; we understand that, and you just have to put your head down, and do your job, and try to improve."

    But it goes beyond that. It also falls on personnel decisions. General manager Eric DeCosta focused on improving the team defense, as he traded for defensive end Calais Campbell and edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue, and selected inside linebacker Patrick Queen in the first round of the 2020 Draft. And this was while other quarterbacks got wide receiver help: The Cardinals got DeAndre Hopkins to help Kyler Murray, and the Bills got Stefon Diggs to help Josh Allen.

    That doesn't mean the Ravens offense is entirely broken. Things are off-sync as of now. But that doesn't mean that they are not going to be back to the offensive juggernaut that they were last season. One thing that Jackson can do is to start beating the lighter defenses playing man coverage, either by making more tight-window throws or scrambling more efficiently.

    DeCosta can also try to find personnel solutions in the offseason. The only two free agents on offense are center Matt Skura and wide receiver Willie Snead. Both have played over 50 percent of the season's offensive snaps. On defense, the Ravens have to either extend or replace Ngakoue, outside linebackers Matt Judon and Pernell McPhee, defensive end Derek Wolfe, and cornerback Jimmy Smith. The Ravens are projected to have $22 million in cap space in 2021. The defensive losses will be more significant, so they could use more of that money on that side of the ball. But they need to find a possession receiver to help open up the middle of the field, and make it easier for Jackson to find completion opportunities.

    But that is next season. Can the Ravens' offense get back in sync to how they were dominating the league last season? They have six weeks to find out.