The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Have a Problem

 

    The Buccaneers are 7-5. But they have been on a skid where they have lost three of their last four. Things haven't been going well as of late, as they have lost their previous two games by the same score: 27-24 to the Rams and Chiefs. Tom Brady had five combined passing touchdowns in those two games, but in that same span, he threw four combined interceptions as well. He even completed 54% of his passes against the Rams.

    Could it be because of the tense relationship between Brady and Bruce Arians? Or could it be because of not playing well on primetime games? Or could it be because of the Antonio Brown effect?

    First, there was reported tension between Brady and Arians. It seems as if they aren't on the same page. When Brady signed with the Bucs after spending 20 seasons with the Patriots, there were people saying that the 43-year-old QB would not fit in Arians' system. With the Bucs losing three of their last four and possibly falling out of the NFC South division race, it may have proved the doubters right.

    After the loss to the Chiefs, Brady is averaging 39.5 pass attempts per game, which is the 2nd-highest in his 21-year Hall of Fame career. Throwing the ball more during games has not been a recipe for success for him. The loss to the Chiefs marks the 4th game where he threw multiple interceptions this season. With two in that game, he now has 11 on the season, which is the most through his first 12 games of a season since 2006. Instead of going the dink-and-dunk route with precision passing like he did with the Pats, under Arians, Brady has taken more deep shots downfield. Although he is 4-of-7 on deep throws, since Week 5, he is dead last among 31 quarterbacks in passer rating on deep balls.

    Age may be a factor for his lack of success in throwing the ball deep downfield, but the reality is that going deep has never been one of his strengths. The best thing to do is for Arians to adjust the "no-risk-it/no-biscuit" style of offense to better suit Brady's skillset. Brady may have a lot of offensive weapons in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, but if he is not comfortable with how he is asked to use it, things will get ugly.

    When Brady passes the ball, his greatest asset is not his arm, but rather, his mind. A short-to-intermediate passing game is best for him, as it allows him to get the ball off his hands quickly, capitalizing on opportunities. Having him in the pocket and forcing the ball deep is bad for him.

    Despite the Bucs' 7-5 record, they are 1-3 in primetime games this season. In 1 PM and 4 PM ET games, the Bucs have scored 34.13 points per game on average and gave up 21.5 points per game. In primetime games, the Bucs average 17.75 points per game while giving up 27 points per game. Before the game against the Rams, Arians overhauled the team's practice schedule to prepare for the game. He gave his players Wednesday off to rest after treating it as a bonus practice. They would have their normal 11:25 AM practice on Thursday, followed by a 7:30 PM practice on Friday at Raymond James Stadium and a Saturday night practice at the team facility.

    Over the last few years, the Bucs have played the majority of their games at 1 PM, and have had the majority of their practices at 11 AM. This may be another reason why the Bucs usually are mentally sharp and prepared to play a full 60-minute NFL game on 1 PM games and not primetime games.

    Brate, who has played in 12 primetime games in his career, thinks that playing on Monday night is a unique challenge as opposed to playing on other primetime games, saying, "The Thursday night game, you're just trying to go over the game plan as much as you can because it's pretty new. You haven't really practiced much of it. Sunday, you've got football all day. Monday's the weird one, for sure. It definitely is a whole different deal. You're sitting there waiting the whole day to play the game."

    But another factor has to do with offensive efficiency, which measures the success on a per-play basis. According to ESPN Stats & Info, before their loss to the Rams, the Bucs had an offensive efficiency of 81.9. At that time, there were two other teams with offensive efficiency ratings above 80: The Chiefs (86.0) and the Packers (81.9). However, the Bucs' offensive efficiency in primetime games is 35.6. In eight non-primetime games this season, the Bucs have averaged 4.13 offensive touchdowns per game (33 total touchdowns), but in their primetime games, they have scored a total of six.

    In non-primetime game, the Bucs' 3rd down conversion rate is 46.9% and their red zone touchdown efficiency is 75.6%, whereas in primetime games, those numbers are down to 30.8% and 50%. And before the loss to the Rams, in non-primetime games, the Bucs had a league-best 50% tight-window completion rate. But in primetime games, that number dropped down to 21.1%, 26th in the league.

    For the Bucs, slow starts have been problematic. In the first halves of their eight non-primetime games, the Bucs turned the ball over four times, while in the first halves of their four primetime games, they also turned the ball over four times. Their non-primetime opponents have scored 21 points off turnovers, while their primetime opponents have also scored 21 points off turnovers. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bucs have given up an average of 1.5 red zone touchdowns per game in non-primetime games. That number goes up to 3.25 red zone touchdowns per game in primetime games.

    Arians also noted that teams that have frequently been in primetime have been successful. There is a valid point here: Before Week 11 of this season, out of the top five winningest teams in the past five seasons, all five are in the top seven of primetime games played in that span:

1. Seattle Seahawks: 15-5 (.738 win percentage)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers: 14-5 (.737 win percentage)
3. Philadelphia Eagles: 15-6 (.714 win percentage)
4. Kansas City Chiefs: 16-8 (.667 win percentage)
5. New England Patriots: 15-8 (.652 win percentage)

    Where did the Bucs sit at that time? In 24th place, with 10 primetime games played, where they have gone 3-7 in those games.

    As for Brady, he has played in 78 primetime games, including those in the postseason, which is the most out of any quarterback in the league since 2001 and the 2nd most of any active player, behind Jason Witten. In his primetime games, Brady currently holds a record of 51-24. The eight starters on the Bucs offense not named Brady, Antonio Brown (38 primetime games), or Rob Gronkowski (34 primetime games) have combined for 67 primetime games. That's a considerably large gap in experience.

    There are two sides on who is at fault for this: Those who think Brady is at fault for his play, and those who think Arians is at fault for designing the plays that Brady and the rest of the offense is not executing well. But both sides have legitimate points. Brady had 561 passing yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions in the back-to-back losses, completing only 59% of his passing attempts. Two of those picks were bad throws. No one expected such a change in scenery to where Brady reverts back to 2007 form, but he is supposed to be better than how he did in those games.

    On the other side, Arians hasn't given Brady much help. Former NFL quarterback and current ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky brought up the play-action problem, and it's a valid argument. Brady is averaging over 8 yards per attempt on play action passes, which is almost a full yard more than what he averaged with the Patriots last year, yet he is on pace to attempt 110 of those passes this season, whereas he attempted 126 last season. ESPN also notes that the Bucs are the 3rd-worst team in play-action passes and ran only five such plays against the Chiefs. Brady's proficiency on the play action passes are no secret, and the stats have backed it up, but the Bucs have been almost reluctant to make it a central piece of their offensive gameplan.

    Both sides of the argument are, in fact, correct, because Brady and Arians not making the right decisions caused them to lose back-to-back games. The loss to the Rams had Brady throwing two of the worst picks of the season. The first pick game on a fling with pressure directly at him, and he threw the ball directly towards safety Jordan Fuller, with Chris Godwin, who was the intended receiver, five yards away. The other pick that ended the game was basically intended for nobody.

    The Chiefs game showed Arians' flaws in his gameplan. The play action issue that Orlovsky brought up was there, but there are other things that should be factored in, such as Ronald Jones, after catching a 37-yard touchdown pass, was targeted only once in the rest of the game. Or that Jones put up a 34-yard run in the 3rd quarter and ran the ball only once after that. Or the fact that the Bucs ran the ball only 12 times against a Chiefs defense that is giving up an average of 4.7 yards per carry, the 6th-worst in the league.

    The division of duties here is obviously confusing. But another thing is the amount of pressure Brady faces. Some of that may fall on the offensive line, but Arians isn't doing his QB any favors with how the long plays can develop. Brady's offensive line, in his final season with the Patriots, hasn't been good, and his O-line with the Bucs is slightly better, allowing pressure on 15% of his dropbacks, yet Brady has been hit more times this season (39) than in all of last season (37), and, through 12 weeks, ahs already matched his 2018 total (39). This season, on average, he only has 2.2 seconds before he has to get rid of the ball or the pocket collapses on him. In his final two seasons with the Pats, he had, at worst, 2.4 seconds before either happens.

    The Antonio Brown effect may have a key part in this, too. Ever since he signed with the Bucs, it seems as if things have taken a turn for the worse. The wideout's off-the-field issues haven't caused any sort of drama inside the team, but his mere presence on the team could be derailing the Bucs' Super Bowl hopes. The elephant in the room when it comes to him is his off-field conduct and behavioral history. After the fallout with the Steelers, his tenure with the Raiders ended in disastrous fashion. He then spent eleven days on the Patriots roster, which came to an end in the wake of the lawsuit filed against him alleging sexual assault. He would spend the offseason making headlines in negative ways.

    Although he began the season on an 8-game suspension, after signing with the Bucs, he has been living with Brady, earning good reviews from his coaches, and, despite destroying a security camera, has been a "model citizen," according to Arians.

    Normally, an offense with Brady, Evans, Godwin, Gronkowski, and Brown would bake a team a Super Bowl favorite. But the addition of Brown has instead gotten the Bucs off-sync. Ever since his addition, the Bucs went 1-3, and, surprisingly, Brady's offensive performances have faltered. Although sample size and individual matchups may play a factor in complicating things, the biggest complication is Brown.

    Brady seemed to have done everything possible to include Brown on the Bucs' offense and to throw the ball towards him. But it came at the expense of emerging young wide receivers Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson. Those two receivers may have developed a rapport with Brady, but it also seemed as if the abundance of receiving threats has caused the Bucs to abandon their ground game. Despite getting more talent with the signing, the addition of Brown may have overcomplicated things for the Bucs on a potential quest for a Super Bowl title.

    It's been a very up-and-down year for the Bucs. As of late, Brady has been throwing the types of picks that make people wonder if Jameis Winston really left the team. Arians is sticking to his offensive philosophy and not adjusting to Brady's strengths, to add on to issues with his personnel. The team is struggling to win in primetime games, and the relationship between Brady and Arians is not going well. The Antonio Brown effect can also be part of this too. Everything is falling apart. That doesn't mean the Bucs are out of the playoff race, though. But the Bucs need to do a lot of soul searching.